Pro Picks: Big-time QB matchups highlight the NFL’s Week 11 schedule

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson go head-to-head for first place. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes renew their rivalry. Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels started theirs.

Big-time quarterback matchups highlight the NFL’s Week 11 schedule.

Wilson and the Steelers (7-2) host two-time MVP Jackson and the Ravens (7-3) in a showdown in the AFC North on Sunday. Then Mahomes and the undefeated Chiefs (9-0) take on Allen and the AFC East-leading Bills (8-2) in a playoff rematch.

The NFC East lead was at stake when Hurts and the Eagles beat Daniels and the Commanders 26-18 on Thursday night, giving Pro Picks a win to start the week.

Five road teams are favorites, including Baltimore, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.

Line: 49ers minus 6 1/2

The Seahawks haven’t defeated the 49ers since Wilson was their quarterback in 2021. San Francisco has won six straight in the series, including a playoff victory. Seattle is a long way from its 3-0 start under rookie coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks are coming off a bye, and they have the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense behind Geno Smith but their defense is bottom third. The 49ers just got Christian McCaffrey back last week and this is the time of year when they go on a run. They were 9-0 after a bye in 2022, 6-0 after it last season and started 1-0 with last week’s win in Tampa Bay. Brock Purdy had an excellent game against the Buccaneers and is 5-0 with a passer rating above 115 against the Seahawks.

BEST BET: 49ERS: 31-20

Line: Chargers minus 1 1/2

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals had a shot to knock off the Ravens last week, but blew a 14-point lead and then couldn’t convert a 2-point conversion at the end. Burrow is playing his best football but has a tough challenge against a defense that has two straight games of six sacks or more. The Chargers are giving up the fewest points per game (13.1) and Justin Herbert has benefited from a strong rushing attack. The Chargers are 3-0 against the spread as a home favorite. The Bengals are 2-1 ATS as an underdog.

UPSET SPECIAL: BENGALS: 23-20

Line: Packers minus 5 1/2

Fresh off a bye, the Packers seek their first NFC North victory after losing to the two teams ahead of the them: Detroit and Minnesota. Jordan Love has thrown 10 picks in 240 attempts. Caleb Williams has struggled during a three-game losing streak and the Bears fired their offensive coordinator this week. Maybe a fresh voice can help Williams get going. Green Bay is 10-0 against the spread in the past 10 games vs. Chicago. The Bears are 2-13 straight up in the past 15 divisional games.

PACKERS: 24-16

Line: Lions minus 14

The Lions found a way to win a difficult road game in Houston despite Jared Goff’s five interceptions. With tougher games coming up, they can’t afford a letdown against the overmatched Jaguars. Jacksonville might be the biggest disappointment in the league this season. The Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games and have lost 13 of 16 since an 8-3 start last year after winning their division in 2022. Mascot Jaxson De Ville might be the team’s MVP.

LIONS: 31-16

Line: Vikings minus 6

Sam Darnold is starting to show why he’s on his fourth team, but the Vikings are still winning thanks to a stout defense. Darnold has five interceptions in the past two games and is tied with Love and Geno Smith for the most interceptions in the NFL with 10. Will Levis returned from injury and had his best game for the Titans in another loss. Tennessee still has the top-ranked defense in the league, giving up the fewest yards per game.

VIKINGS: 23-16

Line: Dolphins minus 7 1/2

Miami’s offense is almost back on track with Tua Tagovailoa and the defense stepped up in a road win against the Rams on Monday night. The Dolphins can climb back into the AFC wild-card race with two winnable games coming up against the lowly Raiders and the Patriots. Las Vegas returns from a bye with three new assistant coaches. The Raiders have bigger issues. The offense can’t score and the defense can’t stop opponents from finding the end zone. A short week for Miami off a West Coast game prevents a rout.

DOLPHINS: 23-16

Line: Rams minus 4 1/2

The inconsistent Rams blew a chance to better position themselves for a playoff run with a home loss to Miami. They’ve got an opportunity to rebound against an overmatched team that’s coming off an impressive road win. Drake Maye has been a bright spot for the Patriots and earned his first win as a starter in Chicago. New England sacked Caleb Williams nine times and could make it a long afternoon for Matthew Stafford.

RAMS: 24-17

Line: Browns minus 1

Jameis Winston returns to New Orleans where he started 10 games in four seasons with the Saints. Winston excelled while leading the Browns to an upset win over the Ravens in his first start and struggled in his second. The Browns are coming off a bye and aren’t as bad as their record. The Saints upset the first-place Falcons in interim coach Darren Rizzi’s debut. They haven’t turned the ball over in three games, though only won once. Cleveland’s Nick Chubb could have a breakout game against a bottom-six run defense in his fourth game back.

BROWNS: 20-17

Line: Jets minus 4

The Colts are going back to Anthony Richardson after Joe Flacco had six turnovers, including four interceptions, in the past two games. Cornerback Kenny Moore doesn’t think his teammates are working hard enough. The Jets are more of a mess. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t made an impact. The offense is 26th in yards and averaging just 17.7 points per game. New York’s defense has gone downhill since Robert Saleh was fired. Someone has to win, though.

JETS: 17-16

Line: Ravens minus 3

The Steelers have dominated this rivalry, winning seven of the past eight games. Wilson gets his first taste of it after leading Pittsburgh to three straight wins in his first three games. The Ravens have the No. 1 rushing offense and are first overall in total yards. But the Steelers are fourth against the run. Jackson is 2-4 with four TDs, seven interceptions and a 66.8 passer rating against Pittsburgh. The Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their past six games vs. Steelers.

RAVENS: 24-23

Line: Broncos minus 2

The Falcons couldn’t overcome Younghoe Koo’s three missed field goals in New Orleans. Now, Kirk Cousins and the rest of Atlanta’s offense face a tough challenge in Denver against the league’s fifth-ranked defense. Bo Nix outplayed Mahomes last week and should have plenty of time to throw facing the league’s worst pass rush. Sean Payton has to make sure the Broncos aren’t sulking after a crushing loss in Kansas City.

BRONCOS: 24-20

Line: Bills minus 2

The Chiefs barely stayed undefeated thanks to a blocked field goal on the final play against Denver. Their plus-58 point differential is the lowest of any of the 34 teams that have started 9-0. But Patrick Mahomes relishes the underdog role. The Chiefs have won five straight games as underdogs, including a victory at San Francisco in Week 7. Mahomes is 11-3 during his career as an underdog. The Bills are off to their best start since 1993 thanks to feasting on teams with a combined record of 26-49. Josh Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes in the regular season, 0-3 in the playoffs, including a home loss in the divisional round last January.

CHIEFS: 22-20

Line: Texans minus 7 1/2

The Texans blew a 16-point lead against Detroit and failed to take advantage of five picks. C.J. Stroud needs to get the offense going and could get help if receiver Nico Collins returns. Houston won’t need to score many points against Dallas, which won’t have Dak Prescott for the rest of the season. The Cowboys can’t run the ball and that makes everything more difficult for backup QB Cooper Rush. Micah Parsons is the only one who could keep Dallas from another 20-point loss.

TEXANS: 27-16

Last week: Straight up: 10-4. Against spread: 9-5.

Overall: Straight up: 105-48. Against spread: 82-69-2.

Prime-time: Straight up: 23-10. Against spread: 16-16-1.

Best Bet: Straight up: 7-3. Against spread: 6-4.

Upset Special: Straight up: 7-3. Against spread: 7-3.

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Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson passes the ball during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) tlooks to throw a pass during the second half of an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Graphic shows NFL team matchups and predicts the winners in this week’s action.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes smiles following an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024, in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs won 16-14. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — The U.S. Army veteran who drove a pickup truck into a crowd of New Year’s revelers acted alone, the FBI said Thursday, reversing its position from a day earlier that he likely worked with others in the deadly attack that officials said was inspired by the Islamic State group.

The FBI also revealed that the driver, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a U.S. citizen from Texas, posted five videos on his Facebook account in the hours before the attack in which he proclaimed his support for the militant group and previewed the violence that he would soon unleash in the city's famed French Quarter district.

“This was an act of terrorism. It was premeditated and an evil act,” said Christopher Raia, the deputy assistant director of the FBI's counterterrorism division, calling Jabbar “100% inspired” by the Islamic State.

The attack killed 14 revelers, along with Jabbar, who was fatally shot in a firefight with police after steering his speeding truck around a barricade and plowing into the crowd.

It was the deadliest IS-inspired assault on U.S. soil in years, laying bare what federal officials have warned is a resurgent international terrorism threat. That threat is emerging as the FBI and other agencies brace for dramatic leadership upheaval after President-elect Donald Trump's administration takes office.

Seeking to assuage concerns about any broader plots, Raia stressed that there was no indication of a connection between the New Orleans attack and a Tesla Cybertruck explosion Wednesday outside Trump’s Las Vegas hotel.

The FBI continued to hunt for clues, but said that 24 hours into its investigation, it was now confident that the 42-year-old Jabbar was not aided by anyone else in the attack, which killed an 18-year-old aspiring nurse, a father of two and a former Princeton University football star.

Officials have reviewed surveillance video showing people standing near an improvised explosive device that Jabbar placed in a cooler along the city's Bourbon Street, where the attack occurred, but authorities “do not believe at this point these people are involved ... in any way,” Raia said.

Investigators were also trying to understand more about Jabbar's path to radicalization, which they say culminated with him picking up a rented truck in Houston on Dec. 30 and driving it to New Orleans the following night.

The FBI recovered a black Islamic State flag from his rented pickup and reviewed five videos posted to Facebook, including one in which he said he originally planned to harm his family and friends, but was concerned that news headlines would not focus on the “war between the believers and the disbelievers,” Raia said. He also left a last will and testament, the FBI said.

Jabbar joined the Army in 2007, serving on active duty in human resources and information technology and deploying to Afghanistan from 2009 to 2010, the service said. He transferred to the Army Reserve in 2015 and left in 2020 with the rank of staff sergeant.

Abdur-Rahim Jabbar, Jabbar's younger brother, told The Associated Press on Thursday that it “doesn’t feel real” that his brother could have done this.

“I never would have thought it’d be him,” he said. “It’s completely unlike him.”

He said that his brother had been isolated in the last few years, but that he had also been in touch with him and he didn’t see any signs of radicalization.

“It’s completely contradictory to who he was and how his family and his friends know him,” he said.

In New Orleans on Thursday, a still-reeling city inched back toward normal operations. Authorities finished processing the scene early in the morning, removing the last of the bodies, and Bourbon Street was set to reopen at some point later in the day, according to an official familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity to the AP.

The Sugar Bowl college football game between Notre Dame and Georgia, initially set for Wednesday night and postponed by a day in the interest of national security, was still on for Thursday. The city planned to host the Super Bowl next month.

“This is one of the safest places on earth," Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry said. "It doesn’t mean that nothing can't happen.”

Tucker reported from Washington, and Mustian reported from Black Mountain, North Carolina. Associated Press reporters Stephen Smith, Chevel Johnson and Brett Martel in New Orleans; Jeff Martin in Atlanta; Alanna Durkin Richer, Tara Copp and Zeke Miller in Washington; Darlene Superville in New Castle, Delaware; Colleen Long in West Palm Beach, Florida; and Michael R. Sisak in New York contributed to this report.

Flowers are seen near where a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon streets, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

A man uses a power washer on Toulouse street a day after a vehicle was driven into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon streets, Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

Security with bomb sniffing dogs patrol the area around the Superdome ahead of the Sugar Bowl NCAA College Football Playoff game, Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Military personnel walk down Bourbon street, Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025 in New Orleans. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

People react at the intersection of Bourbon Street and Canal Street during the investigation after a pickup truck rammed into a crowd of revelers early on New Year's Day, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

Police officers stand near the scene where a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon streets, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

Matthias Hauswirth of New Orleans prays on the street near the scene where a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon streets, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

This undated passport photo provided by the FBI on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025, shows Shamsud-Din Bahar Jabbar. (FBI via AP)

Emergency services attend the scene after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

The FBI investigates the area on Orleans St and Bourbon Street by St. Louis Cathedral in the French Quarter where a suspicious package was detonated after a person drove a truck into a crowd earlier on Bourbon Street on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

The FBI investigates the area on Orleans St and Bourbon Street by St. Louis Cathedral in the French Quarter where a suspicious package was detonated after a person drove a truck into a crowd earlier on Bourbon Street on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

A New Orleans police officer searches the area near a crime scene after a vehicle drove into a crowd on Canal and Bourbon Street earlier, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Jack Brook)

EDS NOTE: GRAPHIC CONTENT - Emergency personnel work the scene on Bourbon Street after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Investigators work the scene after a person drove a vehicle into a crowd killing several, earlier on Canal and Bourbon Street in New Orleans, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

New Orleans mayor LaToya Cantrell makes a statement after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

A mounted police officer arrives on Canal Street after a vehicle drove into a crowd earlier in New Orleans, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Kevin McGill)

A police barricade near the scene after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Emergency services attend the scene after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

The scene after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Emergency services attend the scene on Bourbon Street after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

The St. Louis Cathedral is seen on Orleans St is seen in the French Quarter where a suspicious package was detonated after a person drove a truck into a crowd earlier on Bourbon Street on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

Emergency services attend the scene on Bourbon Street after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Investigators work the scene after a person drove a vehicle into a crowd earlier on Canal and Bourbon Street in New Orleans, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Trevant Hayes, 20, sits in the French Quarter after the death of his friend, Nikyra Dedeaux, 18, after a pickup truck crashed into pedestrians on Bourbon Street followed by a shooting in the French Quarter in New Orleans, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

A black flag with white lettering lies on the ground rolled up behind a pickup truck that a man drove into a crowd on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, killing and injuring a number of people, early Wednesday morning, Jan. 1, 2025. The FBI said they recovered an Islamic State group flag, which is black with white lettering, from the vehicle. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Emergency services attend the scene after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Security personnel gather at the scene on Bourbon Street after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

EDS NOTE: GRAPHIC CONTENT - Security personnel investigate the scene on Bourbon Street after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

The FBI investigates the area on Orleans St and Bourbon Street by St. Louis Cathedral in the French Quarter where a suspicious package was detonated after a person drove a truck into a crowd earlier on Bourbon Street on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

Edward Bruski, center, gets emotional at the scene where a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

FBI members examine the scene on Bourbon Street during the investigation of a truck fatally crashing into pedestrians on Bourbon Street in the French Quarter in New Orleans, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

Emergency service vehicles form a security barrier to keep other vehicles out of the French Quarter after a vehicle drove into a crowd on New Orleans' Canal and Bourbon Street, Wednesday Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)

Members of the FBI walk around Bourbon Street during the investigation of a truck fatally crashing into pedestrians on Bourbon Street in the French Quarter in New Orleans, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)