Where Turkey stands as Syrian government falls to opposition insurgents

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Syrian refugees across Turkey jubilantly welcomed the downfall of Bashar Assad’s government Sunday, with many embracing the chance to return to their homeland.

Large crowds waving Syrian and Turkish flags gathered in the main square of Kilis, a border city in southern Turkey.

In Hatay province, which also lies on the Syrian frontier, many said it was time to go home after years of living in Turkey, which hosts some 3 million Syrians.

“We are free now, everyone should return to their homeland,” Mahmud Esma told the DHA news agency at the Cilvegozu border gate.

Turkey, which shares a 911-kilometer- (566-mile-) long frontier with Syria, has been a main backer of opposition groups aiming to topple Assad since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011.

While Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement, observers believe that the offensive, which appears to be aligned with Turkey’s long-time goals, could not have gone ahead without Ankara’s consent.

It has allowed Turkey, through its Syrian proxy the Syrian National Army, to push back against Kurdish forces in Syria allied to its sworn enemy, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK.

The jihadi group that spearheaded the 10-day march on Damascus, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is listed as a terrorist organization by Ankara. However, Turkey has operated alongside it for years in northern Syria and is believed to exert significant influence over the group.

Here’s a look at Turkey’s position, how Assad’s removal could serve the country’s objectives and possible risks ahead:

Turkey has stated its support for Syria’s territorial integrity: the last thing it wants is a Kurdish-controlled autonomous region on its border or a fresh exodus of refugees created by instability.

Ankara has conducted several incursions into Syria since 2016 with the aim of pushing back the Islamic State group or Kurdish militants and creating a buffer zone along its border, and now controls a stretch of territory in northern Syria.

Turkey was previously involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between the regime and insurgents, including holding talks with Assad’s main supporters, Russia and Iran.

Recently Ankara sought a reconciliation with Assad in order to mitigate the threat to Turkey from Kurdish militias and ensure the safe return of refugees. Assad rebuffed Turkey’s overtures.

Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of involvement in the anti-government offensive, stating opposition to developments that increase instability in the region.

“All statements that claim Turkey provoked or that Turkey supported this are untrue. They are all lies,” Omer Celik, spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party, said this week.

Analysts say, however, that the rebel offensive would have been impossible without a green light from Turkey.

Turkish officials say Ankara stalled the offensive for months. Opposition forces finally went ahead with the assault after the Syrian government attacked opposition-held areas, violating agreements between Russia, Iran and Turkey to de-escalate the conflict.

The offensive was initially meant to be limited, the officials said, but expanded after Syrian government forces began retreating from their positions.

Speaking in Qatar on Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Turkey “attaches great importance for the national unity, stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and the well-being of the Syrian people.

“Thereby millions of Syrians who were forced to leave their homes can return to their land.”

The Syrian government's fall could pose several risks to Turkey, including sending a new wave of refugees toward the Turkish border if chaos ensues.

Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said that first and foremost Turkey wants a stable Syria.

“The first risk that Turkey would want to avoid that all cost is the territorial disintegration of Syria, with different power structures vying to obtain autonomy on their territory,” he said, highlighting the PKK-linked Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the YPG, in northeast Syria.

A stable period of transition would allow Turkey to channel economic aid to Syria to create the conditions for the return of refugees, Ulgen added.

Some analysts have suggested that the rebel offensive could stoke tensions with Syria’s backers, Iran and Russia. Turkey, a NATO member, has sought to balance close relations with both Ukraine and Russia in the face of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

Ulgen noted that Russia has not accused Turkey of stoking the insurgents’ advance. He said this was due in part to not wanting Turkey to “switch to become more anti-Russia” in its stance on the war in Ukraine.

“I don’t think that this creates a breaking point in Turkey-Russian relations.”

The developments have raised hopes that Turkey may achieve its strategic objectives in Syria, including securing its southern borders and facilitating the safe return of Syrian refugees.

Since 2022, Turkey has sought to normalize relations with Syria. However, Assad insisted on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, while Turkey maintains it cannot withdraw as long as threats from Kurdish militias persist.

Whether a change of rule in Syria will allow Turkey to push the YPG away from its borders remains to be seen. HTS has reportedly developed good ties with the YPG, which heads the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Turkey views the YPG as a terrorist organization despite its alliance with the U.S. against the Islamic State group.

Calling for the preservation of Syria's territorial integrity, Fidan said Turkey was being “watchful” to “make sure that terrorist organizations, especially Daesh and PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation.” He was referring to the Islamic State group and the YPG.

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army expelled the YPG from Tal Rifaat, north of Aleppo, during the latest advance. On Sunday, Turkish security officials said it had seized control of most of the Kurdish-held city of Manbij.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, noted that Turkey would expect to have a significant say in the new-look Syria.

“There will be negotiations that will decide the future of Syria,” he said. “Turkey will be influential but so will the United States and so will the Middle Eastern countries that will finance the rebuilding of Syria.”

Gonul Tol, director of the U.S.-based Middle East Institutes’ Turkish Program, noted that Turkey may not be able to control the HTS as it pursues its own interests. “HTS are a wild card. Does Turkey really want a jihadist organization to be running a neighboring country?” she said.

Wilks reported from Istanbul.

Residents leave the city carrying their belongings in Hama, Syria, Friday Dec. 6, 2024.(AP Photo/Omar Albam)

The President of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and opposition, Hadi Al-Bahra, speaks to the media during a press conference in Istanbul, Turkey, Monday, Dec. 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Khalil Hamra)

FILE - From left: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during their meeting in Ankara, Turkey, Monday, Sept. 16, 2019. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, Pool, File)

Residents leave the city carrying their belongings in Hama, Syria, Friday Dec. 6, 2024.(AP Photo/Omar Albam)

FILE - A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Baderkhan Ahmad, File)

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia's top security agency said Thursday that it has arrested several suspects accused of involvement in an alleged Ukrainian plot to assassinate senior military officers, an announcement that follows the killing of a top Russian general last week.

The Federal Security Service, a top KGB successor known under its Russian acronym FSB, said in a statement carried by Russian news agencies that it had arrested four Russians accused of making preparations to kill senior Defense Ministry officials.

The FSB said that the suspected organizers of the attacks were planning to kill one of the senior officers using a remotely controlled car bomb. It added that another top military official was to be assassinated by an explosive device hidden in an envelope. The agency didn't name the military officers who were targeted in the alleged plot.

The FSB released a video showing the arrest and interrogation of the suspects, who weren't named.

The statement follows the death of Lt. Gen Igor Kirillov who was killed on Dec. 17 by a bomb hidden on an electric scooter parked outside his apartment building as he left for his office. Kirillov’s assistant also died in the brazen attack that was claimed by Ukraine and brought the conflict once again to the streets of the Russian capital.

The FSB has arrested a suspect, a citizen of the Central Asian nation of Uzbekistan, and claimed that he said that he had been recruited by Ukrainian special services.

Kirillov, 54, was the chief of Russia’s Radiation, Biological and Chemical Protection Forces. These special troops are tasked with protecting the military from the enemy’s use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and ensuring operations in a contaminated environment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described Kirillov’s killing as a “major blunder” by Russia’s security agencies, noting they should learn from it and improve their efficiency.

Investigators work near a scooter at the place where Lt. General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia's Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence Forces and his assistant Ilya Polikarpov were killed by an explosive device planted close to a residential apartment's block in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024. (AP Photo)