Aviation experts said Thursday an Azerbaijani airliner that crashed in Kazakhstan most likely went down after being hit by Russian air defense systems.
Here are some things to know about the crash that killed 38 out of the 67 people on board:
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Flowers and portraits are placed at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
In this image taken from video released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers transport wounded passengers from a medical plane after the Azerbaijani Airline crashed, near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, upon their arrival at the Zhukovsky airport outside Moscow, Russia, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov lays a bunch of flowers at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
Azerbaijan's national flag at half-mast in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, is seen in front of a Government's building in the center of Baku, Azerbaijan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)
The wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lays on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Azamat Sarsenbayev)
Azerbaijan's national flag at half-mast in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, is seen in the center of Baku, Azerbaijan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)
In this photo released by Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, Members of an investigation committee and local officials walk past the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lying on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was en route from the Azerbaijani capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons that aren't yet fully clear. It crashed while trying to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down near the coast about 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before hitting the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Rescuers rushed 29 survivors to hospitals.
Azerbaijan observed a nationwide day of mourning on Thursday. National flags were at half-staff, traffic across the country stopped at noon, and sirens were sounded from ships and trains.
Speaking at a news conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
Kazakhstani, Azerbaijani and Russian authorities say they are investigating the crash. Embraer told The Associated Press in a statement that the company is “ready to assist all relevant authorities.”
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
While officials remained tight-lipped, an Azerbaijani lawmaker directly pointed the finger at Russia. Rasim Musabekov told the Azerbaijani news agency Turan that the plane was fired upon in the skies over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology.
Some aviation experts say the holes seen in the plane’s tail section after the crash indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the fragments of the crashed plane indicate with a 90-99% probability that it was hit by a surface-to-air missile.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.”
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia since the full-scale war in Ukraine began in February 2022.
FlightRadar24 said in an online post that the aircraft had faced “strong GPS jamming” that interfered with flight tracking data allowing to monitor planes' flight path. Russia has extensively used sophisticated jamming equipment to fend off drone attacks.
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that the images of the crashed plane’s tail show damage compatible with shrapnel from the Russian Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
It's unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land in Russia after the plane was hit, he said, adding that they probably faced restrictions on landing at a closer venue and may have thought that the damage was not critical.
In Azerbaijan, Caliber online newspaper also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system and also had its systems affected by jamming equipment as it was approaching Grozny.
The paper questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the drone attack in the area on Wednesday, and why they didn’t allow the plane to land in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine it.
Flowers and portraits are placed at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
In this image taken from video released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers transport wounded passengers from a medical plane after the Azerbaijani Airline crashed, near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, upon their arrival at the Zhukovsky airport outside Moscow, Russia, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov lays a bunch of flowers at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
Azerbaijan's national flag at half-mast in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, is seen in front of a Government's building in the center of Baku, Azerbaijan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)
The wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lays on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Azamat Sarsenbayev)
Azerbaijan's national flag at half-mast in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, is seen in the center of Baku, Azerbaijan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)
In this photo released by Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, Members of an investigation committee and local officials walk past the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lying on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
Aviation experts said Thursday that Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane crash the day before that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan's capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while making an attempt to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before crashing into the ground and exploding in a fireball.
Other footage showed a part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside down on the grass.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims with national flags at half-staff across on Thursday. Traffic stopped at noon, and sirens sounded from ships and trains as it observed a nationwide moment of silence.
Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but said that the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said that preliminary information indicated the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
Authorities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia were tight-lipped about a possible cause of the crash but a lawmaker in Azerbaijan blamed Moscow. Rasim Musabekov told the Azerbaijani news agency Turan that the plane was fired on while in the skies over Grozny and urged Russia to offer an official apology.
“Those who did this must face criminal charges,” Musabekov was quoted by Turan as saying, adding that compensations to the victims should also be paid. “If it doesn't happen, relations will be affected.”
As the official crash investigation started, some experts pointed out that holes seen in the plane’s tail section could indicate that it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. An official in Chechnya said another drone attack on the region was fended off on Wednesday, although federal authorities didn't report it.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for risks, said that the analysis of the images of fragments of the crashed plane indicate that it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said that the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson posted online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane's tail reveal the damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system.
“It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments,” he said.
Matveyev added that it remains unclear why the pilots decided to fly hundreds of miles east across the Caspian Sea instead of trying to land at a closer airport in Russia after the plane was hit.
“Perhaps some of the plane's systems kept working for some time and the crew believed that they could make it and land normally,” Matveyev said, adding that the crew could also have faced restrictions on landing at another venue in Russia.
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website with good government connections, also claimed that the airliner was fired upon by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone raid in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of Chechnya's Security Council, said that air defenses downed drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also wondered why Russian authorities didn't allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or other Russian airports nearby after it was hit.
Asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and unethical.
According to Kazakh officials, those aboard the plane included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhs and three Kyrgyzstan nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday flew nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.
Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.
In this photo provided by Azerbaijan's Presidential Press Office, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev holds a meeting in Baku, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024 following an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 plane crash. (Azerbaijani Presidential Press Office via AP)
St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov lays a bunch of flowers at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
Flowers and portraits are placed at the Consulate of Azerbaijan in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, in St. Petersburg, Russia, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, a part of Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
Azerbaijan's national flag at half-mast in the memory of victims of the Azerbaijan Airlines' Embraer 190 that crashed near the Kazakhstan's airport of Aktau, is seen in the center of Baku, Azerbaijan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Aziz Karimov)
In this image taken from video released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers transport wounded passengers from a medical plane after the Azerbaijani Airline crashed, near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, upon their arrival at the Zhukovsky airport outside Moscow, Russia, on Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, rescuers prepare to carry a wounded passenger near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26 , 2024, after a plane of Azerbaijani Airline crashed. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo provided by Azerbaijan's Presidential Press Office, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, center, holds a meeting following an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 plane crash, in Baku, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (Azerbaijani Presidential Press Office via AP)
In this image released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers carry a wounded passenger near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26 , 2024, after a plane of Azerbaijani Airline crashed. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
In this image released by the Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers prepare to carry a wounded passenger near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau, Thursday, Dec. 26 , 2024, after a plane of Azerbaijani Airline crashed. (Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
In this photo released by Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lays on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
In this photo released by Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service, rescuers work at the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Thursday, Dec. 26, 2024. (Kazakhstan's Emergency Ministry Press Service via AP)
The wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lays on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Azamat Sarsenbayev)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
In this photo taken from a video released by the administration of Mangystau region, the wreckage of Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near the airport of Aktau, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. (The Administration of Mangystau Region via AP)
