March Madness: How to win your NCAA women's tournament pool and a look at what history tells us

Congratulations to the 12 teams left in the chase for the women’s Division I national championship.

Wait. We mean 68, right?

Not really. Technically, yes, there are 68 teams in the women’s tournament field, but history tells us that only 12 — at the most — have a chance to be the last team standing in Tampa in a few weeks at the Final Four.

Since the NCAA women’s tournament was born in 1982, there have been 32 No. 1 seeds that have gone on to win the national championship, along with seven No. 2 seeds and three No. 3 seeds.

That’s it. No other seeds need apply.

Also needing to not apply: Cinderellas. Put simply, teams with more than a handful of losses on their record don’t win the women’s national championship.

The only teams to win the national title with five or more losses on their record were Tennessee (28-6 in 1987), Tennessee (30-5 in 1991), Tennessee yet again (29-10 in 1997) and Texas A&M (33-5 in 2011).

So, using the less-than-five-losses theory — combined with the prerequisite of having to be a top-three seed — that leaves us with UCLA, South Carolina, Texas, TCU, USC and UConn.

But this isn’t about how to pick a champion. It’s how to win your bracket. (And yes, you should be in a women’s bracket pool, because A, it’s just as fun as a men’s pool and B, it's another chance to look smart.)

Here are some tips:

We could almost just go ahead and say it’ll be UCLA, South Carolina, UConn, USC and Texas as the five finalists for the national title. The reason? They’re currently holding down spots 1 through 5 in the AP Top 25.

The only teams to be ranked outside the top five in the final AP poll going into the tournament — and this year’s rankings could change in the final pre-tourney poll on Monday — were UConn (No. 6 in 2004), Texas A&M (No. 7 in 2011), Tennessee (No. 7 in 1987), LSU (No. 9 in 2023) and Tennessee (No. 10 in 1997).

Teams seeded 9 through 12 went 1-15 in their Round of 64 games last season. That’s not good.

But in 2022 and 2023, those teams busted brackets. Teams seeded 9 through 12 got seven Round of 64 wins in 2023, and eight in that round in 2022.

There’s going to be a lot of chalk at the top. The middle is where a smart bracket player will separate from the others in their pool.

Harvard is the only 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed in the women’s tournament; it happened in 1998. Teams seeded No. 14 and No. 15 are a combined 0-240 in tournament games.

There have been five instances of a No. 13 seed beating a No. 4 in the last 20 tournaments — Wright State in 2021, Marist in 2012 and 2007, Liberty in 2005 and Middle Tennessee in 2004. It’s rare. Expect it to stay that way.

Spokane 1: UCLA, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Ole Miss, LSU, Florida State, N.C. State, Harvard.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Indiana, Maryland, Green Bay, North Carolina, West Virginia, Duke, Vanderbilt.

Birmingham 3: Texas, Creighton, Ohio State, Tennessee, Notre Dame, Michigan, TCU, Louisville.

Spokane 4: USC, California, Kentucky, Fairfield, Florida Gulf Coast, Iowa, South Dakota State, UConn.

Spokane 1: UCLA, Baylor, LSU, N.C. State.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Maryland, North Carolina, Duke.

Birmingham 3: Texas, Tennessee, Notre Dame, TCU.

Spokane 4: USC, Kentucky, Iowa, UConn.

Spokane 1: UCLA, LSU.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina, Duke.

Birmingham 3: Texas, Notre Dame.

Spokane 4: USC, UConn.

Spokane 1: If healthy, LSU will be extremely tough. Going with UCLA here in a very close pick in a rematch of last season's Round of 16.

Birmingham 2: South Carolina had an argument to be the No. 1 overall seed. The Gamecocks will have to settle for a Final Four trip instead.

Birmingham 3: Texas is elite. But Notre Dame's guards are going to be too much. The Irish head to Tampa.

Spokane 4: USC vs. UConn. A rematch of a two-point USC win in December. UConn wins this time.

UCLA vs. UConn. Notre Dame vs. South Carolina. Oh, this is going to be fun.

UConn vs. South Carolina for the trophy.

And in the end, Geno Auriemma, Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd find a way. The Huskies — at long last — return to the women's college basketball mountaintop.

AP March Madness: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness

UCLA players react after being revealed as the No. 1 overall seed in the women's NCAA college basketball tournament at the Selection Sunday watch party in Los Angeles Sunday, March 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

WASHINGTON (AP) — An American man who was abducted more than two years ago while traveling through Afghanistan as a tourist has been released by the Taliban in a deal with the Trump administration that Qatari negotiators helped broker, the State Department said Thursday.

George Glezmann, an airline mechanic from Atlanta, is the third American detainee to be released by the Taliban since January. He was seized by the Taliban's intelligence services in December 2022 and was designated by the U.S. government as wrongfully detained the following year.

In a statement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Glezmann was on his way back to the United States to be reunited with his wife, Aleksandra. He also praised Qatar for “steadfast commitment and diplomatic efforts” that he said were “instrumental in securing George’s release.”

“George’s release is a positive and constructive step. It is also a reminder that other Americans are still detained in Afghanistan. President Trump will continue his tireless work to free ALL Americans unjustly detained around the world,” Rubio said.

Glezmann was being accompanied back to the U.S., through Qatar's capital, Doha, by Adam Boehler, who has been handling hostage issues for President Donald Trump's administration. Qatar has hosted negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban over the years.

The release of Glezmann is part of what the Taliban has previously described as the “normalization" of ties between the U.S. and Afghanistan following the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Most countries still don’t recognize the Taliban’s rule.

Glezmann's release follows a separate deal, arranged in the final days of the Biden administration and also mediated by the Qataris, that secured the releases of Ryan Corbett and William McKenty. The Taliban’s Foreign Ministry in Kabul said at the time that those two U.S. citizens had been exchanged for Khan Mohammed, who was sentenced to two life terms in 2008 after being convicted under U.S. narco-terrorism laws.

Unlike in that arrangement, the U.S. did not give up any prisoner to secure Glezmann's release, which was done as a goodwill gesture, according to an official briefed on the matter who insisted on anonymity due to the sensitivity of the negotiations.

The Taliban disclosed earlier Thursday that Boehler had been meeting on hostage issues with a delegation that included Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

President Joe Biden contemplated before he left office an earlier proposal that would have involved the release of Glezmann and other Americans for Muhammad Rahim, one of the remaining detainees at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. But Biden told families during a call in January that he would not support trading Rahim unless the Taliban released Afghan-American businessman Mahmood Habibi.

U.S. officials believe the Taliban is holding Habibi, but the Taliban has denied it.

Associated Press writers Victoria Eastwood in Cairo and Munir Ahmed in Islamabad contributed to this report.

In this handout photo released by Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, George Glezmann, center, poses with Adam Boehler, second left, and Zalmay Khalilzad, second right, and Qatari diplomats in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, March 20, 2025, before departing to Doha, Qatar. (Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)

In this handout photo released by Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, George Glezmann, center, poses with Adam Boehler, second left, and Zalmay Khalilzad, second right, and Qatari diplomats in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, March 20, 2025, before departing to Doha, Qatar. (Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)

In this handout photo released by Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs, George Glezmann, center, poses with Adam Boehler, second left, and Zalmay Khalilzad, second right, and Qatari diplomats in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, March 20, 2025, before departing to Doha, Qatar. (Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AP)