Erdogan was emboldened to jail Istanbul mayor by global turmoil, analysts say

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Erdogan was emboldened to jail Istanbul mayor by global turmoil, analysts say

2025-03-24 18:50 Last Updated At：19:01

ISTANBUL (AP) — The imprisonment of Istanbul’s opposition mayor has come at a time when Turkey finds itself at the center of geopolitical turmoil that observers say has freed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to target his most dangerous opponent.

Ekrem Imamoglu was detained in a dawn raid on his official residence last week. On Sunday, a court ordered him to be jailed pending trial for graft offenses including bid-rigging and accepting bribes. He also faces terror-related charges.

As mayor of the economic and cultural capital of Turkey with a population of 16 million, Imamoglu is probably Turkey’s second-highest profile politician after Erdogan.

However, analysts say a convergence of international factors gave Erdogan the opportunity to try to neutralize the main threat to him in elections due to be held in 2028, but which could come sooner.

“There are a really special confluence of factors that made this seemingly easy for him to pull off in terms of not suffering international condemnation or punishment for it,” said Monica Marks, professor of Middle East studies at New York University Abu Dhabi.

The arrest of Imamoglu over corruption and terrorism allegations came as a bombshell last Wednesday, despite recent legal cases against district mayors from his Republican People’s Party, or CHP.

Since 2016, when Erdogan faced an attempted coup, Turkey's courts have widened their crackdown on opposition parties, using charges such as graft or ties to Kurdish militants to discredit his rivals.

The government, however, says the courts are fully independent and denies claims that legal actions against opposition figures are politically motivated.

The European Union, which usually offers criticism of Turkey’s democratic slide, currently finds itself in a weaker position vis-a-vis Turkey due to “American abandonment” of European defense, Russian aggression, and its “own internal demons” from EU-sceptic forces using migration as a tool to gain relevance, according to Marks.

Ankara is in a position to offer succor in all these areas. Militarily, Turkey has NATO’s second largest army in addition to a well-developed defense industry capable of supplying high-tech weaponry such as aerial drones.

During the course of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has maintained close ties with both Moscow and Kyiv and has repeatedly offered to act as a mediator in peace talks.

Turkey is also emboldened by the collapse of the Assad government in neighboring Syria at the hands of rebels it supported over the course of the war. These rebels now make up the new government.

On migration to Europe, Ankara has acted as a barrier since it signed a 2016 deal in which it agreed to prevent migrants crossing its borders and seas to reach the EU.

All these strands increase Turkey’s geopolitical importance to Europe.

President Donald Trump’s isolationist outlook has also strengthened Erdogan’s hand, said Marks, while the “normalization of populist authoritarianism makes what Erdogan is doing less shocking, less concerning for Western democracies.”

While international elements offered Erdogan the opportunity to act against Imamoglu, the timing was due to domestic factors.

Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Sabanci University, said the CHP’s decision to confirm Imamoglu as its presidential candidate for 2028 was key to his arrest.

“Erdogan was hopeful that he could slow down, if not completely hinder, Imamoglu’s candidacy prospects,” Esen said. “But when the CHP decided to hold (presidential) primaries, it became clear that Imamoglu would come out as the candidate for the CHP so Erdogan wanted to move against him right away.”

Those primaries — in which Imamoglu was the only candidate — were held Sunday, confirming the imprisoned Imamoglu as Erdogan’s challenger.

Another domestic factor in Erdogan’s favor was the tentative peace process begun with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has waged a 40-year insurgency against the Turkish state and is considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies.

Many observers have suggested the process is, at least in part, a bid to co-opt Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party into supporting Erdogan’s bid for another presidential term. Similarly, it could serve to split the Kurds from the CHP, presenting Erdogan with a divided opposition, Esen said.

Imamoglu has emerged as the main challenger to Erdogan’s 22-year rule since he was elected mayor of Istanbul in 2019, overturning a quarter-century of rule by parties from Turkey’s conservative Islamist tradition.

According to Esen, he is the “perfect” candidate to take on Erdogan – relatively young at 53, from a conservative Sunni background but with a “modern” wife, and hailing from the Black Sea business world that offers nationwide informal connections.

He has outperformed Erdogan in recent polls and represents what Marks called the “last bastion” of Turkish opposition.

In recent years he has been the target of several criminal cases that could result in prison sentences and a political ban. Last week, a university nullified his diploma, a decision that effectively bars him from running for president.

All of which would make it seem unnecessary to arrest and jail him, risking the public backlash currently being played out in the streets of Turkey.

Selim Koru, a political analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey, said the earlier cases would merely make Imamoglu seem a “perfectly fine politician who was unfairly disqualified.”

Writing in his Kulturkampf Substack, Koru added: “They had to make him into a villain to give their claims force … The strategic rationale is evident at once. The presidential elections are scheduled for 2028, so the regime wanted to get rid of Imamoglu before then, knock down the CHP while you’re at it, then take a couple of years for things to calm down.”

And as to the significance putting Imamoglu behind bars, Marks said it represents the “last stop on Turkey’s political train before it hits full dictatorship station.”

Canadian Prime Minister Carney calls Trump's auto tariffs a 'direct attack' on his country

2025-03-27 09:09 Last Updated At：09:12

TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump's auto tariffs are a “direct attack” on his country and that the trade war is hurting Americans, noting that American consumer confidence is at a multi-year low.

Trump said earlier Wednesday that he was placing 25% tariffs on auto imports and, to underscore his intention, he stated “This is permanent.”

“This is a very direct attack,” Carney responded. “We will defend our workers. We will defend our companies. We will defend our country.”

Carney said he needs to see the details of Trump's executive order before taking retaliatory measures. He called it unjustified and said he will leave the election campaign to go to Ottawa on Thursday to chair his special Cabinet committee on U.S. relations.

Carney earlier announced a CA$2 billion ($1.4 billion) “strategic response fund” that will protect Canadian auto jobs affected by Trump’s tariffs.

Autos are Canada’s second largest export, and Carney noted it employs 125,000 Canadians directly and almost another 500,000 in related industries.

“Canada will be there for auto workers,” he said.

Trump previously granted a one-month exemption on his stiff new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada for U.S. automakers.

The president has plunged the U.S. into a global trade war — all while on-again, off-again new levies continue to escalate uncertainty.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its U.S consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, the fourth straight monthly decline and its lowest reading since January of 2021.

“His trade war is hurting American consumers and workers and it will hurt more. I see that American consumer confidence is at a multi-year low,” Carney said earlier while campaigning in Windsor, Ontario ahead of Canada’s April 28 election.

The tax hike on auto imports starting in April means automakers could face higher costs and lower sales.

Trump previously 25% tariffs on Canada’s steel and aluminum and is threatening sweeping tariffs on all Canadian products — as well as all of America’s trading partners — on April 2.

“He wants to break us so America can own us,” Carney said. “And it will never ever happen because we just don’t look out for ourselves we look out for each other.”

Carney, former two-time central banker, made the earlier comments while campaigning against the backdrop of the Ambassador Bridge, which is considered the busiest U.S.-Canadian border crossing, carrying 25% of all trade between the two countries. It plays an especially important role in auto manufacturing.

Carney said the bridge carries $140 billion Canadian dollars ($98 billion) in goods every year and CA$400 million ($281 million) per day.

"Now those numbers and the jobs and the paychecks that depend on that are in question," Carney said. “The relationship between Canada and the United States has changed. We did not change it.”

In the auto sector, parts can go back and forth across the Canada-U.S. border several times before being fully assembled in Ontario or Michigan.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said, whose province has the bulk of Canada’s auto industry, Ford said auto plants on both sides the border will shut simultaneously if the tariffs go ahead.

“President is calling it Liberation Day. I call it Termination Day for American workers. I know President Trump likes tell people ’Your fired!” I didn’t think he meant U.S. auto workers when he said it,” Ford said.

Trump has declared a trade war on his northern neighbor and continues to call for Canada to become the 51st state, a position that has infuriated Canadians.

Canadians booed Trump repeatedly at a Carney election rally in Kitchener, Ontario.

The new prime minister, sworn in March 14, still hasn’t had a phone call with Trump. It is unusual for a U.S. president and Canadian prime minister to go so long without talking after a new leader takes office.

“It would be appropriate that the president and I speak given the action that he has taken. I’m sure that will happen soon,” Carney said.

Opposition Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said the tariffs will damage American auto workers just as they will damage Canadian auto workers.

"The message to President Trump should be to knock it off," Poilievre said. “He's changed his mind before. He's done this twice, puts them on, takes them off. We can suspect that may well happen again.”