Buzzkill: Trump's trade wars threaten America's craft brewers already reeling from changing tastes

America’s craft brewers already have enough problems. Hard seltzers and cocktails are muscling into beer sales. Millennials and Gen Z don’t drink as much as their elders. Brewpubs still haven’t fully recovered from the shock of COVID-19 five years ago.

Now there’s a new threat: President Donald Trump’s tariffs, including levies of 25% on imported steel and aluminum and on goods from Canada and Mexico.

“It’s going to cost the industry a substantial amount of money,” said Matt Cole, brewmaster at Ohio-based Fat Head’s Brewery. Trump’ trade war “will be crippling for our industry if this carries out into months and years.”

The tariffs, some of which have been suspended until April 2, could impact brewers in ways big and small, said Bart Watson, president and CEO of the Brewers Association, the trade group for craft beer. Aluminum cans are in Trump’s crosshairs. And nearly all the steel kegs used by U.S. brewers are made in Germany, so a tariff on finished steel products raises the cost of kegs. Tariffs on Canadian products like barley and malt would also increase costs. And some brewers depend on raspberries and other fruit from Mexico, Watson said.

At Port City Brewing in Alexandria, Virginia, founder Bill Butcher worries that he’ll have to raise the price of a six-pack of his best-selling Optimal Wit and other brews to $18.99 from around $12.99, and to charge more for a pint at his tasting room.

“Are people still going to come here and pay $12 a pint instead of $8?’’ he said. “Our business will slow down.’’

For Port City, the biggest threat comes from the looming tariff on Canadian imports. Every three weeks, the brewery receives a 40,000-pound truckload of pilsner malt from Canada, which goes into a 55,000-pound silo on the brewery’s grounds. Butcher said he can’t find malt of comparable quality anywhere else.

Trump’s tariffs also hit Port City in a round-about way: The levy on aluminum, which went into effect March 12, is causing big brewers to switch from aluminum cans to bottles. Port City, which bottles 70% of its beer, found itself unable to get bottles.

“Our bottle supplier is cutting us off at the end of the month,’’ Butcher said. “That caught us by surprise.’’

Fat Head’s Brewery gets its barley from Canada. Cole said it could shift to sources in Idaho and Montana, but the shipping logistics are more complicated. And Trump’s tariffs, by putting Canadian barley at a competitive disadvantage, would allow U.S. producers to raise domestic prices.

Fat Head’s is trying to mitigate the impact of the tariffs. Anticipating higher aluminum prices, for instance, the brewery stockpiled beer cans — which it gets from a U.S. supplier — and now has 3 million cans in its warehouse, 30% of what it needs annually. It has also shifted production to painted cans, which are cheaper than those with shrink-wrapped film sleeves.

In Arizona, some brewers are already eliminating or reducing the beers they offer in aluminum cans to cut costs, said Cale Aylsworth, the director of sales and relations at O.H.S.O. Brewery and Distillery and president of the Arizona Craft Brewers Guild.

“This is a blow to Arizona craft. I hate to see less local options on the shelf,” Aylsworth said.

Some brewers have also lost access to store shelves from one big customer: Canada, which is the top foreign market for U.S. craft beer, accounting for almost 38% of exports. But Canadians are furious that Trump targeted their products, and Canadian importers have been cancelling orders and pulling U.S. beer off store shelves.

The tariffs come at an already difficult time for brewers.

After years of steady growth — the number of U.S. breweries more than doubled to 9,736 between 2014 and 2024 — the industry is struggling to compete with seltzers and other beverages and to win over younger customers. In 2024, brewery closings outnumbered openings for the first time since the mid-2000s, Watson of the Brewers Association said. He estimates that U.S. craft beer production dipped 2% to 3% last year.

“Craft brewing had a period of phenomenal growth, but we are not in that era anymore,” he said. “We’re in a more mature market.”

Port City’s production peaked in 2019 at 16,000 barrels of beer — equivalent to 220,000 cases. Then COVID hit and hammered the company’s draft beer business in bars and restaurants. The comeback has been slow. Butcher expects Port City to produce 13,000 barrels this year.

The brewery seeks to set itself apart by emphasizing its award-winning brews. In 2015, Port City was named small brewery of the year at the Great American Beer Festival. But it isn’t easy with import taxes threatening to raise the cost of ingredients and packaging.

“It’s hard enough to run a small business when your supply chain is in intact,’’ he said. And the erratic way that Trump has rolled out the taxes — announcing them, then suspending them, then threatening new ones — has made it even more difficult to plan.

“The unpredictability just injects an element of chaos,’’ Butcher said.

Aylsworth, in Arizona, said big brewers have whole teams of people to calculate the impact of tariffs, but smaller brewers must stretch their resources to navigate them. That's on top of the other complexities of running a brewery, from zoning laws to licensing permits to labor shortages.

But for many brewers, the heaviest burden right now is lower sales as customers cut back on beer, Aylsworth said. That's why many brewers are trying hard not to raise prices.

“In today’s world, with the economy and the high level of uncertainty, people are spending less,” Cole said. “Beer is an affordable luxury, and we want to make sure we don’t lose that.’’

FILE - A bin of spent grain leftover from the brewing process at Resurgence Brewing Company is wheeled out, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025, in Buffalo, N.Y. (AP Photo/Lauren Petracca, File)

Bags of malt imported from Canada are piled inside Resurgence Brewing Company, Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025, in Buffalo, N.Y. Eighty percent of the malt used in the brewery's beer-making process is from Canada. (AP Photo/Lauren Petracca)

FILE - Empty aluminum cans for beer sit at the old Irving Brewing Co. in Chicago, Thursday, March 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

FILE - Empty aluminum cans for beer sit at the old Irving Brewing Co. in Chicago, Thursday, March 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

FILE - A bartender pours a craft beer at the Liquid Love Brewing in Buffalo Grove, Ill., Thursday, Feb. 9, 2022. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — A decision on the future of the tush push has been pushed until next month.

NFL team owners had been set to vote Tuesday on Green Bay’s proposal to ban the play that’s helped the Philadelphia Eagles win one Super Bowl and reach another, but it was tabled until May.

Team owners approved modifying the kickoff rule, expanding replay assist, revising overtime rules, along with other changes.

Postponing the tush push vote means the debate will continue while teams gather more information. Proponents of the play and those who oppose it presented strong arguments while the league's medical experts expressed safety concerns.

NFL Competition Committee chairman Rich McKay stressed the issues surrounding the play extend beyond safety because there's not enough data to indicate it's dangerous. The league already has said no injuries have been reported on a tush push.

“There are definitely some people that have health and safety concerns, but there’s just as many people that have football concerns,” McKay said. “So I wouldn’t say it was because of one particular health and safety video or discussion. It was much more about the play, the aesthetics of the play, is it part of what football has been traditionally, or is it more of a rugby play? All those types of discussions. Health and safety is still there because of potential but I wouldn’t go beyond that.”

The league prohibited pushing or pulling a player before a rule change in 2004. McKay said the Packers asked to pull the proposal so they could reintroduce the previous language, study it, and bring it up for discussion for a vote at the May meetings.

It takes 24 of 32 votes to approve rule changes.

“It went to many different directions beyond health and safety,” McKay said of the 30 to 40-minute conversation. “Just the traditional-ness of the play, the idea that you could push another player, the idea that we prohibit pushing on the defense but we don’t prohibit it on the offense. It went in all those directions.”

As for changes that did pass, regular-season overtime rules now will match those in the playoffs and both teams will have a chance to get a possession even if the offense scores a touchdown on the opening drive. The proposal was amended to make overtime 10 minutes, not 15 minutes.

Owners also approved a proposal from the NFL Competition Committee to allow replay assist to consult on-field officials to overrule objective calls such as facemask penalties, whether there was forcible contact to the head or neck area, horse-collar tackles or tripping if there was “clear and obvious” evidence that a foul didn’t occur. Replay also would be able to overturn a roughing-the-kicker or running-into-the-kicker penalty if video showed the defender made contact with the ball.

Replay assist could wipe out a foul only if it was incorrectly called, but it will not be used to throw a flag if a penalty wasn't called.

The dynamic kickoff rule becomes permanent, with touchbacks moving to the 35-yard line instead of the 30.

Pittsburgh's proposal to allow teams to have one video or phone call with no more than five prospective unrestricted free agents during the two-day negotiation period was approved. Teams now can make travel arrangements with such players upon agreeing to terms.

Also, owners approved a rule to permit clubs to prepare kicking footballs (“K-Balls”) before game day, similar to the process permitted for game footballs.

Detroit's proposal for playoff seeding to be based on winning percentage was also tabled for May. The proposal to stop automatic first downs from being awarded on defensive holding and illegal contact penalties didn't pass.

Philadelphia’s version of the quarterback sneak sparked the most intense discussions.

Bills coach Sean McDermott was among those leading the push to get rid of it, even though Buffalo used it more than any team other than the Eagles.

“I feel where I’m most concerned is, even though there is not significant data out there to this point, my biggest concern is the health and safety of the players, first and foremost,” McDermott said Monday. “It’s two things. It’s force, added force, No. 1, and then the posture of the players, being asked to execute that type of play, that’s where my concern comes in. ... I’m not a doctor. I’m not going to get too deep into that situation there, in terms of how much data, how much sample. I don’t think that’s really always the best way to go. There is other data out there that suggests when you’re in a posture like we’re talking about, that can lead to serious injury. I think being responsible and proactive in that regard is the right way to go.”

The Eagles began using the play in short-yardage situations in 2022. Two or three players line up behind quarterback Jalen Hurts and push him forward. Several other teams including the Bills began using it, but no team has matched Philadelphia’s success rate.

“Tough play to stop but then you’re listening to that and the medical side and you probably could go either way with it,” said Chiefs coach Andy Reid, whose team lost 40-22 to the Eagles in the Super Bowl. “But I would say if it’s putting a player in a bad position, then you probably have to do something about it. But if it’s not, it’s a heck of a play.”

AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

FILE - Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) lines up for the goal line Tush Push play during the NFL championship playoff football game against the Washington Commanders, Jan. 26, 2025, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Chris Szagola, File)