Lebanon faces multiple crises as 2024 draws to a close, grappling with the aftermath of a destructive conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, a prolonged financial collapse since 2019, and ongoing political paralysis marked by the failure to elect a new president.
The war, which erupted on Oct 8, 2023, after Hezbollah opened a support front for the Gaza Strip following Hamas's large-scale attacks on Israel, has escalated dangerously over the past year. The conflict left more than 4,000 people dead and over 16,600 injured in Lebanon alone, and caused the deaths of key Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah.
Besides the thousands of aerial strikes exchanged, a tactical shift by the Israelis saw the armed group's pagers and radio communication devices explode, shaking the group from the inside.
The operation, conducted in two waves on September 17 and 18, involved the detonation of thousands of explosive-laden pagers and hundreds of walkie-talkies across Lebanon and Syria, aiming at Hezbollah members. At least 42 people were killed and more than 3,400 injured during the attack, according to Lebanese reports.
It was followed by a series of assassinations of Hezbollah's leadership that included the group's secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, and his possible successor.
"These events happened within just 10 days. It was a major security breach for Hezbollah. Many questions emerged. In 2006, Israeli enemy was defeated. Israel then studied the reasons for its defeat. It realized the communication network for the resistance was strong, it was wired," said Brig. Gen. Bahaa Hallal, a Lebanese researcher of military affairs.
He added that Israel had attacked the wired network, pushing Hezbollah to wireless communication.
The assassinations have dealt a significant blow to the Lebanese armed group and other regional actors opposing Israel. Nasrallah's death also raised questions about Hezbollah's future role in Lebanon, even as it remains a formidable force.
"The deaths of the group's leaders were not easy for the country, because they were policy makers. The strike on Hezbollah was a breaking point for the group. While evolution is happening for the future of the group, I don't believe it will be disarmed or even marginalized. It can still play a role as part of a Lebanese state," said Mokhtar Ghobashy, secretary general of Al Farabi Center for Strategic Studies.
In October, Israel's troops started infiltrating the southern Lebanese border, sparking a mass exodus of residents in south Lebanon to the north and of foreigners to flee the country.
On Nov 27, a ceasefire, meant to halt nearly 14 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, came into effect. The agreement stipulated an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory within 60 days, with the Lebanese army deploying on the border and in the south to assume security control and ban weapons and militants.
Breaches to the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have been taking place, pointing to its fragility. Monitors estimate about 260 violations so far, mostly by the Israeli side.
Also on the day, a military coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham -- militant Islamist group in Syria -- waged a major military operation from northern Syria. It swept southwards, captured the capital Damascus, and overthrew former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government within 12 days.
The fall of al-Assad's regime, which was followed by Israeli incursion into the Syrian territory, has put Lebanon in a more intense situation, Bahaa Hallal said.
"In Syria, Israel has managed to control strategic locations in Jabal al-Sheikh. It took four mountain summits, advancing further into the east to Hauran, reaching Suwayda. This makes Lebanon surrounded from the north, the east, and they are already in the south. This puts the country between the jaws of Israel's pliers," he said.
Lebanon is grappling with one of the worst crises in its modern history, as an economic and financial collapse that began in 2019 has been compounded by the conflict.
A recent World Bank report estimates that the conflict has caused 8.5 billion U.S. dollars in combined physical damage and economic losses. Of this, 3.4 billion U.S. dollars accounts for infrastructure damages, while economic losses stand at 5.1 billion U.S. dollars. The report predicts Lebanon's real GDP growth will shrink by at least 6.6 percent in 2024.
The United Nations' International Organization for Migration says nearly 886,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon.
"There is a bundle of challenges Lebanon will face in 2025. On top is to recover from the implications of the hostile confrontation with Israel. The economy remains the most prominent issue. Lebanon's economy has been struggling for many years. It was toppled by the port explosion in 2020, and the war increased that pressure on its citizens," said Hany Soliman, manager of Al Araby Center for Research and Studies.
Lebanon has remained without a president throughout 2024 as parliament repeatedly failed to elect a successor to Michel Aoun, who left office in October 2022 at the end of his term, due to political deadlock.
This presidential vacuum has coincided with a caretaker government led by Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, who has been unable to form a new government, creating an unprecedented dual executive vacuum.
The political gridlock has hampered efforts to implement structural reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund to unlock much-needed financial assistance.
Parliament is scheduled to convene on Jan 9 to attempt another presidential election, raising hopes of restoring the functioning of public institutions and reviving legislative activity.
Lebanon to enter 2025 with security, economic, political challenges
