Trump's reciprocal tariffs will overturn decades of trade policy

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Trump's reciprocal tariffs will overturn decades of trade policy

2025-04-01 07:16 Last Updated At：07:31

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is taking a blowtorch to the rules that have governed world trade for decades. The “reciprocal’’ tariffs that he is expected to announce Wednesday are likely to create chaos for global businesses and conflict with America’s allies and adversaries alike.

Since the 1960s, tariffs — or import taxes — have emerged from negotiations between dozens of countries. Trump wants to seize the process.

“Obviously, it disrupts the way that things have been done for a very long time,’’ said Richard Mojica, a trade attorney at Miller & Chevalier. “Trump is throwing that out the window ... Clearly this is ripping up trade. There are going to have to be adjustments all over the place.’’

Pointing to America’s massive and persistent trade deficits – not since 1975 has the U.S. sold the rest of the world more than it’s bought -- Trump charges that the playing field is tilted against U.S. companies. A big reason for that, he and his advisers say, is because other countries usually tax American exports at a higher rate than America taxes theirs.

Trump has a fix: He’s raising U.S. tariffs to match what other countries charge.

And he's expected to roll out his reciprocal tariffs — possibly along with unknown details about other import taxes — on Wednesday April 2. He's taken to calling the date "Liberation Day'' because his protectionist policies aim to free the U.S. economy from dependence on foreign goods.

The president is an unabashed tariff supporter. He used them liberally in his first term and is deploying them even more aggressively in his second. Since returning to the White House, he has slapped 20% tariffs on China, unveiled a 25% tax on imported cars and trucks set to take effect Thursday, effectively raised U.S. taxes on foreign steel and aluminum and imposed levies on some goods from Canada and Mexico, which he may expand this week.

Economists don't share Trump's enthusiasm for tariffs. They're a tax on importers that usually get passed on to consumers. But it's possible that Trump's reciprocal tariff threat could bring other countries to the table and get them to lower their own import taxes.

“It could be win-win,” said Christine McDaniel, a former U.S. trade official now at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center. “It’s in other countries’ interests to reduce those tariffs.”

She noted that India has already cut tariffs on items from motorcycles to luxury cars and agreed to ramp up purchases of U.S. energy.

They sound simple: The United States would raise its tariff on foreign goods to match what other countries impose on U.S. products.

“If they charge us, we charge them,’’ the president said in February. “If they’re at 25, we’re at 25. If they’re at 10, we’re at 10. And if they’re much higher than 25, that’s what we are too.’’

But the White House didn’t reveal many details. It has directed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to deliver a report this week about how the new tariffs would actually work.

Among the outstanding questions, noted Antonio Rivera, a partner at ArentFox Schiff and a former attorney with U.S. Customs and Border Protection, is whether the U.S. is going to look at the thousands of items in the tariff code – from motorcycles to mangos -- and try to level the tariff rates out one by one, country by country. Or whether it will look more broadly at each country’s average tariff and how it compares to America. Or something else entirely.

“It’s just a very, very chaotic environment,” said Stephen Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association. “It’s hard to plan in any sort of long-term, sustainable way.’’

America’s tariffs are generally lower than those of its trading partners. After World War II, the United States pushed for other countries to lower trade barriers and tariffs, seeing free trade as a way to promote peace, prosperity and American exports around the world. And it mostly practiced what it preached, generally keeping its own tariffs low and giving American consumers access to inexpensive foreign goods.

Trump has broken with the old free trade consensus, saying unfair foreign competition has hurt American manufacturers and devastated factory towns in the American heartland. During his first term, he slapped tariffs on foreign steel, aluminum, washing machines, solar panels and almost everything from China. Democratic President Joe Biden largely continued Trump’s protectionist policies.

The White House has cited several examples of especially lopsided tariffs: Brazil taxes ethanol imports, including America’s, at 18%, but the U.S. tariff on ethanol is just 2.5%. Likewise, India taxes foreign motorcycles at 100%, America just 2.4%.

The higher foreign tariffs that Trump complains about weren’t sneakily adopted by foreign countries. The United States agreed to them after years of complex negotiations known as the Uruguay Round, which ended in a trade pact involving 123 countries.

As part of the deal, the countries could set their own tariffs on different products – but under the “most favored nation’’ approach, they couldn’t charge one country more than they charged another. So the high tariffs Trump complains about aren’t aimed at the United States alone. They hit everybody.

Trump’s grievances against U.S. trading partners also come at an odd time. The United States, running on strong consumer spending and healthy improvements in productivity, is outperforming the world’s other advanced economies. The U.S. economy grew nearly 9% from just before COVID-19 hit through the middle of last year — compared with just 5.5% for Canada and just 1.9% for the European Union. Germany's economy shrank 2% during that time.

Not satisfied with scrambling the tariff code, Trump is also going after other foreign practices he sees as unfair barriers to American exports. These include subsidies that give homegrown producers an advantage over U.S. exports; ostensible health rules that are used to keep out foreign products; and loose regulations that encourage the theft of trade secrets and other intellectual property.

Figuring out an import tax that offsets the damage from those practices will add another level of complexity to Trump’s reciprocal tariff scheme.

The Trump team is also picking a fight with the European Union and other trading partners over so-called value-added taxes. Known as VATs, these levies are essentially a sales tax on products that are consumed within a country’s borders. Trump and his advisers consider VATs a tariff because they apply to U.S. exports.

Yet most economists disagree, for a simple reason: VATs are applied to domestic and imported products alike, so they don't specifically target foreign goods and haven't traditionally been seen as a trade barrier.

And there’s a bigger problem: VATs are huge revenue raisers for European governments. “There is no way most countries can negotiate over their VAT ... as it is a critical part of their revenue base,’’ Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, posted on X.

Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, says that the top 15 countries that export to the U.S. have average VATs topping 14%, as well as duties of 6%. That would mean U.S. retaliatory tariffs could reach 20% — much higher than Trump's campaign proposal of universal 10% duties.

Trump and some of his advisers argue that steeper tariffs would help reverse the United States' long-standing trade deficits.

But tariffs haven't proven successful at narrowing the trade gap: Despite the Trump-Biden import taxes, the deficit rose last year to $918 billion, second-highest on record.

The deficit, economists say, is a result of the unique features of the U.S. economy. Because the federal government runs a huge deficit, and American consumers like to spend so much, U.S. consumption and investment far outpaces savings. As a result, a chunk of that demand goes to overseas goods and services.

The U.S. covers the cost of the trade gap by essentially borrowing from overseas, in part by selling treasury securities and other assets.

“The trade deficit is really a macroeconomic imbalance," said Kimberly Clausing, a UCLA economist and former Treasury official. “It comes from this lack of desire to save and this lack of desire to tax. Until you fix those things, we’ll run a trade imbalance.”

AP Retail Writer Anne D'Innocenzio in New York contributed to this story.

Zen the border collie teaches other dogs how to rescue people in Italy's avalanche-prone Dolomites

2025-04-07 13:20 Last Updated At：13:31

CORTINA D'AMPEZZO, Italy (AP) — Zen, a 5-year-old border collie, circled friskily around a mound of snow as he picked up a scent, his quick movements signaling to his handler that someone was buried deep below.

Zen has been a rescue dog for three years, and on this day, he was setting an example for 20 others dogs being certified for avalanche rescue in the heart of the Italian Dolomites, where the breathtaking jagged peaks have long enchanted writers, painters and outdoor enthusiasts alike.

The role of dogs in Italian alpine rescues is becoming more important as the number of people caught by avalanches increases — up by 50% over the past 25 years.

Climate change has made heavy, wet snow more common in midelevations between 1,500-2,500 meters (5,000-8,000 feet) where most excursionists venture, which makes avalanche survival less likely by compressing air pockets that would allow a trapped alpine or off-piste skier to breathe.

A trained avalanche rescue dog's nose can locate someone buried deep in the snow more accurately than any transponder, making their role fundamental in reaching victims "in the shortest possible time,'' said Adriano Favre, who ran the canine training camp in the mountains above Cortina D'Ampezzo, a chic ski resort and a venue of the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.

After picking up the scent, Zen energetically emerged with a sign of life — a rope tug toy — from the snow den masquerading, for the purposes of the training exercise, as an avalanche. Shortly after, his handler digs a volunteer victim out of the snow, and showers Zen with praise and affection.

“All of our dogs need to have an intense relationship with the handler. If not, we can’t read what he is trying to tell us,’’ said Zen’s handler, Paolo Sbisa, who has raised him from puppyhood. “Once the relationship is built, they will do anything to make us happy.’’

Nine days earlier, on a nearby pass just 3 miles (2 kilometers) away as the crow flies, Zen’s mission was deadly serious.

Three backcountry skiers were buried by an avalanche on Giau Pass at 2,300 meters — normally a route for beginners amid scenic rugged rockfaces near a mountain road that turned deadly the day after a heavy snowfall.

Zen and his handler were on the first helicopter leaving base 10 minutes away. By the time they arrived, witnesses had pulled a 51-year-old man from the snow. Rescuers located the second victim with a transponder, a 38-year-old man buried 2 meters (6 feet) deep.

Zen’s nose was key to locating the third skier, a 40-year-old woman buried in 3 to 4 meters (9 to 12 feet) of snow — deeper than the usual, according to Sbisa, making the role of a rescue dog critical in determining where to dig.

Despite their efforts, both she and the second victim died — revealing a disheartening truth: If you need a dog to find you, it’s probably too late. For this reason, Sbisa and other rescuers say it is critical for backcountry excursionists to have and know how to use transponders, foldable probes and shovels, as the best chance of survival is self-rescue by companions or witnesses. Dogs, more often than not, locate bodies.

“If something goes wrong though, the only weapon Alpine rescuers have to search is dogs," Sbisa said. "We have no other chance.″

Avalanches involving people who need rescue in Italy have doubled since the turn of the century from a rolling average of 30 a year to 60, according to the AINEVA snow and avalanche monitoring service. During the same period, the number of excursionists struck on average also increased significantly, from 65 a year to 110 a year, based on rolling averages.

For those who are buried, survival comes down to time. The best chance comes when a person freed in the first 10 to 15 minutes, said Igor Chiambretti, the technical chief of Italy’s AINEVA snow and avalanche association. If not found within 35 minutes, studies show 70% of victims die of asphyxiation.

Rescue dogs in Italy are always on the first helicopter leaving base. But it typically takes 15 to 20 minutes to arrive at any avalanche scene. Bad weather prolongs that window.

Putting a pair of avalanche dogs at ski areas instead would reduce that arrival time to five minutes, something Chiambretti said is being considered in Italy, where 80 avalanche dogs are active.

Adding to the risk are snow dumps — heavy wet snow with the water content between 3% and 8%. They were once considered spring snow, but now come as early as December, thanks to more moisture in the air and warmer temperatures, Chiambretti said.

They are especially common in the heavily trafficked middle altitudes and reduce the chances of survival by compressing air pockets. With more of this kind of snow, the number of people to survive a complete burial will be fewer and fewer, Chiambretti said.

Snow dumps have grown especially more common in Italy, on the southern edge of the Alps, facing the Mediterranean Sea.

“The Mediterranean basin is considered a so-called hot spot, that is an area of the planet where climate change, particularly warming, is more than the global average,’’ said Gianni Marigo, an AINEVA climatologist. The Italian Alps, in turn, “are a hot spot within a hot spot."

The big picture of climate change also means less overall snow for avalanches as glaciers globally shrink, especially in the Alps. Snow depth levels in the southwestern Alps has decreased nearly 5% a decade since the 1980s, according to a 2024 study.

“With a wetter and warmer snow climate, consequences of burial will be more severe,'' while blunt trauma will become more likely as snow cover becomes thinner, according a 2021 study published in Frontiers in Physiology. "Asphyxia and trauma, as causes of avalanche death, may increase."

By the time a rescue dog located Roberto Ferrino buried beneath an avalanche in the Alps of northwestern Piedmonte, the lone backcountry skier had been buried for 4 hours and 40 minutes — well beyond the average survival time.

To this day, seven years after his accident, neither Ferrino nor his wife know how he made it — except that an air pocket formed around him that allowed him to breath. His body temperature dropped to 26 degrees Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) and heart rate to 30 beats per minute.

Still, Ferrino doesn't regret braving the mountains alone that day despite warnings of a “considerable” avalanche risk. He says his error was in choosing a steep slope and not paying attention to the winds.

"If I had done the normal route, nothing would have happened,'' he said.

Barry reported from Rome.

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