PHOTO COLLECTION: Trump Staff Picks

This is a collection of photos chosen by AP photo editors.

From l-r., Jason Miller, Elon Musk, Stephen Miller, Boris Esphteyn, Natalie Harp and Dan Scavino, walk off President-elect Donald Trump's as he arrives, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, at Andrews Air Force Base, Md. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

FILE - Steve Witkoff arrives at a campaign rally for Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at the Butler Farm Show, Oct. 5, 2024, in Butler, Pa. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - Tom Homan speaks as Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump listens at a primary election night party in Nashua, N.H., Jan. 23, 2024. President-elect Donald Trump says that Tom Homan, his former acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement director, will serve as “border czar” in his incoming administration. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

FILE - U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement acting director Thomas Homan poses for a portrait in East Point, Ga., April 26, 2018. President-elect Donald Trump says that Tom Homan, his former acting U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement director, will serve as “border czar” in his incoming administration. (AP Photo/John Bazemore, File)

FILE - Stephen Miller arrives before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally, Friday, Oct. 18, 2024, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

FILE - Former Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., speaks at a rally in Concord, N.H., Jan. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is acknowledged by President-elect Donald Trump, not shown, as he speaks during a meeting with the House GOP conference, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington, as from left, House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., and Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., look on. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is seated before President-elect Donald Trump arrives at a meeting of the House GOP conference, Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President-elect Donald Trump arrives to speak at a meeting of the House GOP conference, followed by Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

FILE - Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe waits to board Marine One with President Donald Trump on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Dec. 12, 2020. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

FILE - Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., takes questions from the media, prior to laying a brick at a new housing complex in the West Bank settlement of Efrat, Aug. 1, 2018. President-elect Donald Trump will nominate former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel. Trump said Tuesday that Huckabee is a staunch defender of Israel and his intended nomination comes as Trump has promised to align U.S. foreign policy more closely with Israel’s interests as it wages wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.(AP Photo/Oded Balilty, File)

FILE - Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., speaking during the first day of the Republican National Convention on Monday, July 15, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

FILE - Trump co-campaign manager Susie Wiles is seen at Nashville International Airport as Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump arrives, July 27, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

FILE - Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump sits with Susie Wiles as he attends the New York Jets football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium, Oct. 20, 2024, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

Susie Wiles watches as Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

FILE - Pete Hegseth walks to an elevator for a meeting with President-elect Donald Trump at Trump Tower in New York, Dec. 15, 2016. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

File - President Donald Trump appears on Fox & Friends co-host Pete Hegseth at a Wounded Warrior Project Soldier Ride event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Thursday, April 6, 2017. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

FILE - South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem speaks before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at a campaign town hall, Oct. 14, 2024, in Oaks, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, File)

BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — For the third straight year, efforts to fight climate change haven't lowered projections for how hot the world is likely to get — and recent developments in China and the United States are likely to slightly worsen the outlook, according to an analysis Thursday.

The analysis comes as countries come together for the 29th edition of the United Nations climate talks, hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, where nations are trying to set new targets to cut emissions of heat-trapping gases and figure out how much rich nations will pay to help the world with that task.

But Earth remains on a path to be 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists and analysts who study government policies and translate that into projections of warming.

If emissions are still rising and temperature projections are no longer dropping, people should wonder if the United Nations climate negotiations known as COP are doing any good, said Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare.

“There’s an awful lot going on that’s positive here, but on the big picture of actually getting stuff done to reduce emissions ... to me it feels broken,” Hare said.

The world has already warmed 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times. That's near the 1.5-degree (2.7 F) limit that countries agreed to at 2015 climate talks in Paris. Climate scientists say the atmospheric warming, mainly from human burning of fossil fuels, is causing ever more extreme and damaging weather including droughts, flooding and dangerous heat.

Climate Action Tracker does projections under several different scenarios, and in some cases, those are going up slightly.

One projected track based on what countries promise to do by 2030 is up to 2.6 degrees Celsius, a tenth of a degree warmer than before. And even the analysts' most optimistic scenario, which assumes that countries all deliver on their promises and targets, is at 1.9 Celsius, also up a tenth of a degree from last year, said study lead author Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics, one of the main groups behind the tracker.

“This is driven highly by China,” Gonzales-Zuniga said. Even though China's fast-rising emissions are starting to plateau, they are peaking higher than anticipated, she said.

Another upcoming factor not yet in the calculations is the U.S. elections. A Trump administration that rolls back the climate policies in the Inflation Reduction Act, and carries out the conservative blueprint Project 2025, would add 0.04 degree Celsius (0.07 Fahrenheit) to warming projections, Gonzales-Zuniga said. That's not much, but it could be more if other nations use it as an excuse to do less, she said. And a reduction in American financial aid could also reverberate even more in future temperature outlooks.

“For the U.S. it is going backwards,” said Hare. At least China has more of an optimistic future with a potential giant plunge in future emissions, he said.

“We should already be seeing (global) emissions going down" and they are not, Hare said. “In the face of all of the climate disasters we’ve observed, whether it’s the massive floods in Nepal that killed hundreds of people or whether it’s the floods in Valencia, Spain, that just killed hundreds of people. The political system, politicians are not reacting. And I think that’s something that people everywhere should be worried about.”

The major battle in Baku is over how much rich nations will help poor countries to decarbonize their energy systems, cope with future harms of climate change and pay for damage from warming's extreme weather. The old goal of $100 billion a year in aid is expiring and Baku's main focus is coming up with a new, bigger figure.

A special independent group of experts commissioned by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued its own estimate of costs and finances on Thursday, calling for a tripling of the old commitment.

“Advanced economies need to demonstrate a credible commitment” to helping poor nations, the report said.

A coalition of poor nations at the Baku talks are asking for $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance. The independent experts' report said about $1 trillion a year is needed by developing nations from all outside sources, not just government grants.

The report detailed how expensive decarbonizing the world's economy would be, how much it would cost and where the money could come from. Overall climate adaption spending for all countries is projected to reach $2.4 trillion a year.

"The transition to clean, low-carbon energy, building resilience to the impacts of climate change, coping with loss and damage, protecting nature and biodiversity, and ensuring a just transition, require a rapid step-up in investment in all countries,'' said the report.

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

Attendees arrive for the day at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

Activists participate in a demonstration for climate finance at the COP29 U.N. Climate Summit, Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)